Uplight’s Predictive Capacity Dispatch (PCD) solution enables utilities to leverage smart thermostat demand response to deliver firm, predictable capacity by by transforming variable thermostat portfolios through AI-driven forecasting and dispatch optimization.

We recently hosted a collaborative Working Group with 16 utility leaders to dive deeper into how PCD works, what it has delivered for our clients so far—including fewer opt-outs and 97% forecasting accuracy—the latest product improvements, and what’s coming next on our product roadmap. Here’s what we learned:

1. Event duration strategy varies by utility goals.

Utilities are taking different approaches to event duration based on their specific needs. Some are finding success with shorter 2-hour events that maintain high customer satisfaction and strong kilowatt per device performance, while others are exploring longer duration events (4+ hours) to address capacity needs and potential peak shifts. PCD is helping predict customers’ likelihood to participate and expected participation length to optimize event value.

2. AMI data sharing remains a critical enabler of PCD.

Currently, about 80% of utilities have AMI data sharing capabilities, which is essential for the current PCD implementation. However, there’s strong interest in telemetry-based PCD solutions (expected by the end of 2026) that will use device-level data instead of whole-home metering, potentially addressing privacy concerns and infrastructure limitations while still enabling predictive dispatch capabilities.

3. Reliability and confidence intervals drive adoption decisions.

The ability to demonstrate consistent performance with minimal variability and high forecasting accuracy is crucial for utilities to count DR as firm capacity that can be integrated into resource planning and compliance frameworks. Flexibility dashboards could be helpful for measuring and demonstrating value.

4. Utilities are still seeking best-fit incentive structures.

The debate between flat-rate incentives versus pay-for-performance (P4P) continues across the industry. Flat-rate structures offer simplicity that customers appreciate and helps avoid complexity, customer confusion, and high customer call volume. However, there are equity and cost-effectiveness concerns when some customers contribute more load shed than others while receiving the same compensation.

5. Future integration with DERMS and multi-device strategies.

Multiple utilities are pursuing or considering integrated DERMS solutions to coordinate smart thermostats with other DER assets (EVs, batteries, etc.). There’s particular interest in sequencing different device types—such as calling thermostats first, then EVs in the evening to extend peak management capabilities. Utilities also see value in targeted, feeder-level dispatch capabilities for addressing localized grid constraints.

Want to learn more about Predictive Capacity Dispatch? Read about the solution and recent results or contact us to set up a time to talk with a PCD expert.